In a recent episode of Project Insights, PMA’s Saumil Maniar and Terry Cooper joined host Amanda Donovan for a conversation about what separates a trustworthy construction cost estimate from a guess dressed up in numbers. The two estimators, who have worked across major transit, utility, and infrastructure programs, discussed how owners can validate estimates at each design stage, manage escalation in a volatile market, and use estimating as a decision-making tool rather than an afterthought.
Both guests agreed that credibility starts with scope. Terry, who works primarily on aviation construction, explained that owners with a well-defined scope of work are far easier to serve than those who have not yet decided what they want to build. Saumil added that early estimates are inherently the hardest to produce because so little is known, and so much can change before a project reaches reality. Without a documented, tracked scope, he said, an estimator has nothing solid to stand on.
The conversation also addressed escalation. Terry pointed to inflation, tariffs, and a shortage of skilled trades such as millwrights and electricians as forces that drive costs beyond what owners budgeted just a couple of years earlier. Saumil described building an internal database of historical projects to track escalation factors over 2, 5, and 10 years and said the swings can be significant even on established programs. His rule of thumb: escalate to the midpoint of construction, then revisit and verify as the project nears the bid date.
Documentation emerged as a recurring theme throughout the discussion, particularly when the topic turned to change orders and disputes. Terry was direct about the stakes: “The party with the clearest documentation is the one that’s going to win.” Saumil echoed the point, noting that a strong basis of estimate protects both the consultant and the owner when market conditions shift, or memories fade months after an assumption was made. He also credited PMA’s leadership development program with sharpening estimators’ ability to communicate their reasoning and recognize their own biases— skills that help when defending an estimate later.
Another exchange centered on speed versus false precision. Terry cautioned against treating a three-week estimate assembled from numbers “pulled out of the air” as more reliable than a three-day estimate built on honest inputs and realistic ranges. Saumil put it more bluntly, recalling early-career requests for a “paper napkin” number produced in five minutes. His advice to estimators: label it for what it is, because rough numbers have a way of sticking around long after the napkin is gone.
As construction costs continue to climb and owners face growing pressure to justify every dollar, the message from Saumil and Terry is clear: a trustworthy estimate is not a single number but a documented, transparent process built on strong scope definition, honest ranges, and a team willing to explain its thinking.
To hear the full conversation on red flags, risk registers, and lessons from decades in the field, listen to the full episode or visit our services page.