Total float is a pivotal concept in scheduling invariably relied upon by schedulers even though total float is based solely on a deterministic schedule without any consideration of risk. To do away with this limitation, PMA professionals are developing a body of knowledge that we call float risk assessment (FRA). In FRA, schedule leeway is calculated with respect to a realistically likely completion date as float use is modeled in the schedule simulation. Safe float values are further calculated to consider all duration uncertainty and risk remaining in the schedule. In summary, safe float is total float adjusted for uncertainty.
Throughout the presentation, Dr. Gui and Dr. Puri cover four main concepts surrounding project completion predictability:
- Improving odds of timely completion requires ample contingency because total float is derived from a forward-pass-calculated, overly optimistic finish date.
- By simulating a schedule and choosing not to assess float-use risk, schedulers are leaving out important information.
- The combination of total floats and safe floats in scheduling should greatly improve offs of timely completion.
- While there is much to learn about how to capitalize on safe float principles in deterministic schedules, the potential project control payoff appears promising.
Presented by: Gui Ponce de Leon & Vivek Puri